With a recent report by the Toronto Sun’s Brian Lilley that industry minister Mélanie Joly is eyeing an exit from caucus, the spotlight now turns to other Liberals seeking to depart. Joly’s potential decision to leave caucus reflects a broader shift in Liberal behaviour, as other seasoned ministers are rumoured to be planning their exits as well. With safe Liberal seats opening up, high-profile contenders and well-known Liberal insiders are beginning to line up.
Bill Blair
Bill Blair represents the Toronto riding of Scarborough Southwest. Blair won 61.5% of the vote in April, marking it a safe seat. He is set to leave as he eyes the position of High Commissioner for the UK. Blair served as the defence minister from 2023 to 2025. His previous portfolios include public safety, emergency preparedness and crime. Before entering politics, Blair served as Toronto’s top cop from 2005 to 2015.
Marc Miller
Marc Miller, representing the riding of Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest— Île-des-Sœurs in Montreal, was dumped from Carney’s cabinet after winning 63.7% of the vote. Miller served on Trudeau’s cabinet as minister for immigration, crown-indigenous relations, and indigenous-services. Miller was one of the most visible and loyal Trudeau-era ministers, with his and Trudeau’s personal friendship going back decades. His removal has prompted considerable speculation about his future in the Liberal caucus, whether he will run again in the next election or if he will be seeking out a patronage appointment with a quiet exit.
Mélanie Joly
Mélanie Joly represents the safe riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville, having won 61% of the vote in April. Joly is set to leave as she seeks the role of Canada’s Ambassador to France. She currently serves as the industry minister and minister for Quebec’s economic development. She previously served as foreign affairs minister and Canadian heritage minister.
Steven Guilbeault
Steven Guilbeault has served as MP for Laurier—Sainte-Marie, Quebec, since 2019, having won 52.1% of the vote share most recently. Guilbeault is set to be shuffled out as frustration develops between him and Prime Minister Carney, as the new government softens its stance on climate change and energy. He currently serves as the Identity and Culture minister and also handles official languages and Parks Canada. He previously held the environment and climate change portfolio in Trudeau’s government.
Jonathan Wilkinson
Jonathan Wilkinson, MP for North Vancouver—Capilano secured his fourth term in April with 59.8% of the vote, making it a safe Liberal seat. He is rumoured to leave, wanting a post in Brussels as ambassador to the European Union. Wilkinson, often viewed as a Green MP, could be eyeing his departure over tension with Carney’s pro-pipeline stance, making his previous role as energy minister inconsequential.
Chrystia Freeland
Although she stepped down from her cabinet role earlier this year, Chrystia Freeland, former Deputy Prime Minister, still represents the safe Liberal riding of University—Rosedale, where she secured 64% of the vote. She is set to start a new role at Rhodes Trust, but will remain Ukraine special envoy. Freeland has not indicated when she will vacate her seat and is still earning a taxpayer-funded salary, despite clear intentions to exit.
Karina Gould
Karina Gould, MP for Burlington, has stirred up speculation about her interest in Ontario’s Liberal leadership race, after an unsuccessful bid for federal Liberal leadership earlier this year. She was successful in earning 55.8% of the vote share in her GTA city and has significant support from youth members and more left-wing members of the Liberal Party. Gould was bumped from her role as international development minister in the spring, potentially driving her interest towards provincial politics.
Nate Erskine-Smith
Nate Erskine-Smith has been the MP for Beaches—East York, Ontario, since 2015. Although he announced in 2024 that he did not plan to run for re-election, he later reversed course after being appointed Minister of Housing, Infrastructure, and Communities, and was re-elected this spring with 67.7% of the vote. Erskine-Smith is now also rumoured to be leaving to run for the Ontario Liberal Party leadership after being removed from cabinet back in May. After the removal, he said he “doesn’t know what the future holds” and that the way Carney’s cabinet took shape “doesn’t sit right” with him. Erskine-Smith also criticized the Prime Minister’s budget, stating it falls “well short” of election promises on climate action, housing and immigration.
Eve Cousens is the Editor of Trending Politics.
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